The 2015 season is off and running, here's how I think the standings will end up:
Yomiuri Giants
Hiroshima Carp
Hanshin Tigers
Chunichi Dragons
Yakult Swallows
Yokohama Baystars
According to some of the articles and message boards I've been seeing, many think this will be a dreary year for the Dragons. Some are even picking them to finish in last place, something that hasn't happened since 1992 (since 1992 Chunichi has finished lower than 4th only once, which was in 2001). Somehow I'm not seeing what they're seeing, barring some very serious injuries (something Chunichi's already been dealing with the last two years when they've missed the playoffs, Yoshimi, Asao, etc.) I don't see this year's team being the worst in the Central League. Sure, they are old and have some holes, but this looks to me like another ho-hum middle-of-the-pack Dragons team. Certainly they are not the only team with holes.
This year's team likely isn't going to score a ton of runs, but is their lineup much worse or even worse at all than their recent pitching-driven playoff teams? I don't think so, it includes two all-star quality players in Oshima and Luna, and Hirata is just coming into his prime. Outside of the catching position, the rest of the lineup was no worse than average last year. Then we get to the pitching, I like the bullpen, they have some good young arms there. Starting pitching shouldn't be a problem either, Valdes is looking like he could be a great pick up to go with Yamai and Ono and maybe even Yoshimi at some point, plus plenty of servicable guys in the back end of the rotation. I'm just not seeing a last-place team here. There is no doubt that the Dragons lineup needs to get younger for future success, but statistics-wise last year wasn't a bad year for guys like Morino, so why is this the year that everyone goes in the tank?
Get fired up Dragons fans, it's a new season, we don't have to listen to the haters! ;-)
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Predictions. Show all posts
Saturday, March 28, 2015
Sunday, March 16, 2014
2014 Outlook
About two weeks to go until Opening Day and the start of a new season. Chunichi will be looking to "Start it Again" with a new front office and coaching staff after a disappointing season last year. They will be starting off on a bit of a bad foot with the news of Kaz Yoshimi not being ready until mid-season (hopefully) and more arm problems for Takuya Asao. Hector Luna though is back from injury and the Dragons have added some other veteran foreign players in an effort shore up some holes, including the loss of long-time Dragon Hirokazu Ibata.
On paper it doesn't look like Chunichi will likely be one of the top contenders in the Central. They will probably need some breaks to fall their way to even end up in playoff position, but they do still have some top players and if they can stay healthier than last year they have a chance to do some damage. Here are my predicted standings for 2014:
Yomiuri Giants - The Giants will again be the team to beat. They were the most complete team in the NPB last year, though they were cut down by the trio of Tanaka, Norimoto and Mima in the Japan Series. Yomiuri's stars are still mostly in their prime and they gained more over the offseason by signing top free agents Kan Otake and Yasuyuki Kataoka than they lost in Dennis Houton and Ryota Wakiya. If anyone other than Yomiuri wins the regular season title I would be very, very surprised.
Hanshin Tigers - Hanshin has some holes, but they were pretty solid last year. Their starting pitching sets them apart from the teams below them, though Hiroshima is close. Over the offseason they lost Jason Strandridge and Yasutomo Kubo, but were able to re-sign Randy Messenger. Messenger together with starters Atsushi Nomi and Shintaro Fujinami make for a formidable 1-2-3 punch. The Tigers also signed Korean pitcher Seung-Hwan Oh to bolster their bullpen. Matt Murton led the offense last year which has some good hitters, but not a lot of power. All together they look like the second-best team in the Central.
Here's where things get tougher to predict:
Chunichi Dragons - I think Chunichi has the talent to take third this year even starting the season with some key injuries. They seemed a little dysfunctional last year under manager Morimichi Takagi, hopefully that will change this year under Tanishige and Mori. Their lineup should produce reasonably well with Luna and Morino at the infield corners and Hirata, who looks like he's figured things out, and Wada in the corner outfield positions. If Oshima can bounce back to the All-Star-type level he's capable of in centerfield it would make for a pretty strong outfield. It remains to be seen how much the Dragons will get out of Shuhei Takahashi and newcomer Alexis Gomez. Anderson Hernandez may get a lot of playing time in the middle infield if Takahashi doesn't look like he's ready for ichi-gun to start the season.
While the offense and the bullpen should be ok, the starting pitching could be what gets the Dragons off to a bad start. With Yoshimi out, Yudai Ono will be looked to as the No. 1 starter, and he has looked it so far in the pre-season. Behind him youngster Toshiya Okada, who pitched well out of the bullpen last year, will transition to a rotation that includes Daniel Cabrera, Daisuke Yamai, Kenshin Kawakami, Soma Yamauchi and potentially Masa Yamamoto. Each of those guys has had success in the NPB, but there is a lot of unpredictability there.
Yokohama BayStars - DeNA is probably the hardest team to read. They've been bad for so long that it's hard to expect much from them, but on paper they are starting look competitive. Their biggest problem in the previous years has been starting pitching, but over the offseason they picked up some interesting pieces. They've added Yasutomo Kubo, Hisanori Takahashi and foreigner Guillermo Moscoso to the mix of Daisuke Miura, Kazuki Mishima and Shugo Fujii. Though a couple of those guys are getting older it looks a lot better then the ni-gun quality pitchers they been rolling out for years. Adding free-agent Aarom Baldiris at third should boost an already decent offense with Tony Blanco, Takehiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Tamura, Takayuki Kajitani, Tatsuhiko Kinjo and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.
Hiroshima Carp - The Carp lost a big part of their starting rotation in Kan Otake over the offseason, they will hope to replace him with draft picks Daichi Osera and Allen Kuri. The two rookies will join a strong top half of the rotation made up of ace Kenta Maeda, Bryan Bullington and Yusuke Nomura. Hiroshima's lineup is still weak, but got stronger with last year's mid-season pick-up of Kila Ka'aihue. I wouldn't be surprised if the Carp finished as high as second or third place, but a lot of their success will depend on their very young starting rotation with the two rookies and even Nomura is only a third-year player who was not as sharp last year as he was in his first year.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows - Outside of Wladimir Balentien and Yasuhiro Ogawa the Swallows didn't have much go right last year and this year isn't starting much better. Shohei Tateyama, who missed almost all of last season with an arm injury, won't be ready to go to start the season. First-round draft pick Toshihiro Sugiura has a torn ligament in his elbow and Wladimir Balentien has been dealing with serious personal issues. They did pick up former MLB pitcher Chris Narveson, who could help and they still have Lastings Milledge who could bounce back after an off year, but it seems unlikely that Yakult will be in the top three this year.
On paper it doesn't look like Chunichi will likely be one of the top contenders in the Central. They will probably need some breaks to fall their way to even end up in playoff position, but they do still have some top players and if they can stay healthier than last year they have a chance to do some damage. Here are my predicted standings for 2014:
Yomiuri Giants - The Giants will again be the team to beat. They were the most complete team in the NPB last year, though they were cut down by the trio of Tanaka, Norimoto and Mima in the Japan Series. Yomiuri's stars are still mostly in their prime and they gained more over the offseason by signing top free agents Kan Otake and Yasuyuki Kataoka than they lost in Dennis Houton and Ryota Wakiya. If anyone other than Yomiuri wins the regular season title I would be very, very surprised.
Hanshin Tigers - Hanshin has some holes, but they were pretty solid last year. Their starting pitching sets them apart from the teams below them, though Hiroshima is close. Over the offseason they lost Jason Strandridge and Yasutomo Kubo, but were able to re-sign Randy Messenger. Messenger together with starters Atsushi Nomi and Shintaro Fujinami make for a formidable 1-2-3 punch. The Tigers also signed Korean pitcher Seung-Hwan Oh to bolster their bullpen. Matt Murton led the offense last year which has some good hitters, but not a lot of power. All together they look like the second-best team in the Central.
Here's where things get tougher to predict:
Chunichi Dragons - I think Chunichi has the talent to take third this year even starting the season with some key injuries. They seemed a little dysfunctional last year under manager Morimichi Takagi, hopefully that will change this year under Tanishige and Mori. Their lineup should produce reasonably well with Luna and Morino at the infield corners and Hirata, who looks like he's figured things out, and Wada in the corner outfield positions. If Oshima can bounce back to the All-Star-type level he's capable of in centerfield it would make for a pretty strong outfield. It remains to be seen how much the Dragons will get out of Shuhei Takahashi and newcomer Alexis Gomez. Anderson Hernandez may get a lot of playing time in the middle infield if Takahashi doesn't look like he's ready for ichi-gun to start the season.
While the offense and the bullpen should be ok, the starting pitching could be what gets the Dragons off to a bad start. With Yoshimi out, Yudai Ono will be looked to as the No. 1 starter, and he has looked it so far in the pre-season. Behind him youngster Toshiya Okada, who pitched well out of the bullpen last year, will transition to a rotation that includes Daniel Cabrera, Daisuke Yamai, Kenshin Kawakami, Soma Yamauchi and potentially Masa Yamamoto. Each of those guys has had success in the NPB, but there is a lot of unpredictability there.
Yokohama BayStars - DeNA is probably the hardest team to read. They've been bad for so long that it's hard to expect much from them, but on paper they are starting look competitive. Their biggest problem in the previous years has been starting pitching, but over the offseason they picked up some interesting pieces. They've added Yasutomo Kubo, Hisanori Takahashi and foreigner Guillermo Moscoso to the mix of Daisuke Miura, Kazuki Mishima and Shugo Fujii. Though a couple of those guys are getting older it looks a lot better then the ni-gun quality pitchers they been rolling out for years. Adding free-agent Aarom Baldiris at third should boost an already decent offense with Tony Blanco, Takehiro Ishikawa, Hitoshi Tamura, Takayuki Kajitani, Tatsuhiko Kinjo and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo.
Hiroshima Carp - The Carp lost a big part of their starting rotation in Kan Otake over the offseason, they will hope to replace him with draft picks Daichi Osera and Allen Kuri. The two rookies will join a strong top half of the rotation made up of ace Kenta Maeda, Bryan Bullington and Yusuke Nomura. Hiroshima's lineup is still weak, but got stronger with last year's mid-season pick-up of Kila Ka'aihue. I wouldn't be surprised if the Carp finished as high as second or third place, but a lot of their success will depend on their very young starting rotation with the two rookies and even Nomura is only a third-year player who was not as sharp last year as he was in his first year.
Tokyo Yakult Swallows - Outside of Wladimir Balentien and Yasuhiro Ogawa the Swallows didn't have much go right last year and this year isn't starting much better. Shohei Tateyama, who missed almost all of last season with an arm injury, won't be ready to go to start the season. First-round draft pick Toshihiro Sugiura has a torn ligament in his elbow and Wladimir Balentien has been dealing with serious personal issues. They did pick up former MLB pitcher Chris Narveson, who could help and they still have Lastings Milledge who could bounce back after an off year, but it seems unlikely that Yakult will be in the top three this year.
Monday, March 25, 2013
2013 Outlook
The 2013 season is upon us, Opening Day being this Friday, and I'm looking forward to a very competitive season. The Central League should be more competive than in past years as lower division teams have done more to help themselves, while upper division teams have remained mostly the same. Again Yomiuri looks to be the dominant favorite, but below them the teams could finish in almost any order. Here's how I see things playing out:
1) Yomiuri Giants - Just like last year the Giants just have too much talent. Unlike last year, they haven't made many big offseason moves. With an already established core, it's unlikely they will get off to as slow a start as last year when they finished the first month in last place then roared back to pass the Dragons. Some of their players are slowing down like Takahashi, Ogasawara and potentially Abe, but other players like Sakamoto and Chono are just reaching their prime. Also Yomiuri's 2012 foreign players didn't meet expectations and they've brought in a new crop to replace them, which includes former Mariner Jose Lopez, and could make the team even better.
2) Chunichi Dragons - The Dragons totally revamped their foreign players roster, but otherwise are very nearly the same team as last year. Yakyubaka has a handy additions/subtractions chart. Chunichi struggled throughout the preseason and finished dead-last in the standings. I don't see that having much bearing on the upcoming season, but it's been a little surprising to see how poorly some of the young pitchers have fared. The Dragons will be counting on some of these young guys as their rotation is not as deep as it's been. The bullpen could be a little shaky as well depending on how healthy Takuya Asao is this year and if Hitoki Iwase can rebound from a tough 2012. The new foreign players are looking good so far and could really give the team a boost, but there are also a lot of question marks and the Dragons could easily finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the league.
3) Yakult Swallows - Yakult hardly made a move this offseason, bringing in only veteran infielder Aki Iwamura and reliever Taiyo Fujita. Neither of these moves will likely help much. On the other hand they didn't lose much either, aside from reliever Chang-Yong Lim who signed with the Chicago Cubs. The Swallows will hope for a better year from Kazuhiro Hatekeyama to supplement Lastings Milledge and Wladimir Balentien in the lineup and more consistency from their starting rotation. Yakult has some holes, but should be about as good as last year.
4) Hanshin Tigers - The Tigers are a team that has done some things to try to improve over last year's dismal season. The headline moves being the acquisition of former major leaguers Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. With the addition of those two players Hanshin should have a dangerous lineup, but their pitching may be what limits them from bumping either Chunichi or Yakult out of a playoff spot. If the pitching is good though, I could see Hanshin finishing as high as 2nd.
5) Hiroshima Carp - Last year I was thinking that the Carp may be moving in the right direction with how strong their starting rotation was becoming, but they don't appear to have added any difference-making bats to their very weak lineup over the offseason. Kenta Kurihara will be back, though he's already fighting injuries, Hiroshima will be relying on Kurihara, Dobayashi, Eldred and newcomer Fred Lewis to provide some run support for their stellar rotation. I'm not sure that's enough to get them higher than 5th in the division.
6) Yokohama Baystars - Yokohama has added some talent this year and should be more competitive. With the combination of Alex Ramirez, Tony Blanco, Nyger Morgan and Norihiro Nakamura they at least have a lot of personality. I'd like to see them do well, but I think they still have a long way to go.
1) Yomiuri Giants - Just like last year the Giants just have too much talent. Unlike last year, they haven't made many big offseason moves. With an already established core, it's unlikely they will get off to as slow a start as last year when they finished the first month in last place then roared back to pass the Dragons. Some of their players are slowing down like Takahashi, Ogasawara and potentially Abe, but other players like Sakamoto and Chono are just reaching their prime. Also Yomiuri's 2012 foreign players didn't meet expectations and they've brought in a new crop to replace them, which includes former Mariner Jose Lopez, and could make the team even better.
2) Chunichi Dragons - The Dragons totally revamped their foreign players roster, but otherwise are very nearly the same team as last year. Yakyubaka has a handy additions/subtractions chart. Chunichi struggled throughout the preseason and finished dead-last in the standings. I don't see that having much bearing on the upcoming season, but it's been a little surprising to see how poorly some of the young pitchers have fared. The Dragons will be counting on some of these young guys as their rotation is not as deep as it's been. The bullpen could be a little shaky as well depending on how healthy Takuya Asao is this year and if Hitoki Iwase can rebound from a tough 2012. The new foreign players are looking good so far and could really give the team a boost, but there are also a lot of question marks and the Dragons could easily finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in the league.
3) Yakult Swallows - Yakult hardly made a move this offseason, bringing in only veteran infielder Aki Iwamura and reliever Taiyo Fujita. Neither of these moves will likely help much. On the other hand they didn't lose much either, aside from reliever Chang-Yong Lim who signed with the Chicago Cubs. The Swallows will hope for a better year from Kazuhiro Hatekeyama to supplement Lastings Milledge and Wladimir Balentien in the lineup and more consistency from their starting rotation. Yakult has some holes, but should be about as good as last year.
4) Hanshin Tigers - The Tigers are a team that has done some things to try to improve over last year's dismal season. The headline moves being the acquisition of former major leaguers Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka. With the addition of those two players Hanshin should have a dangerous lineup, but their pitching may be what limits them from bumping either Chunichi or Yakult out of a playoff spot. If the pitching is good though, I could see Hanshin finishing as high as 2nd.
5) Hiroshima Carp - Last year I was thinking that the Carp may be moving in the right direction with how strong their starting rotation was becoming, but they don't appear to have added any difference-making bats to their very weak lineup over the offseason. Kenta Kurihara will be back, though he's already fighting injuries, Hiroshima will be relying on Kurihara, Dobayashi, Eldred and newcomer Fred Lewis to provide some run support for their stellar rotation. I'm not sure that's enough to get them higher than 5th in the division.
6) Yokohama Baystars - Yokohama has added some talent this year and should be more competitive. With the combination of Alex Ramirez, Tony Blanco, Nyger Morgan and Norihiro Nakamura they at least have a lot of personality. I'd like to see them do well, but I think they still have a long way to go.
Friday, March 1, 2013
2013 WBC Predictions
Just hours away from the WBC kickoff featuring Chinese Taipei and Austrailia in Taiwan. I've been looking forward to the WBC for a while, and I'm really hoping for a good showing from the USA. I'm also hoping for another Japan vs. USA matchup with a USA win to restore some of the bragging rights in my household. Based on how the bracket sets up both the U.S. and Japan would have to make it to the final four to enable them to face off, and I'm not sure either team has what it takes to make it that far. The field in general seems a little less talented than in 2009 with a lot of stars choosing not to play, but a lot of good players will still be there and because it's early in the year and guys won't be in mid-season form the tournament should be fairly unpredictable as it was in 2009.
In the spirit of the upcoming NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, here's my WBC bracket:
Advancing from Pool A: Japan & Cuba (to Pool 1)
Advancing from Pool B: Korea & Chinese Taipei (to Pool 1)
Advancing from Pool C: D.R. & Venezuela (to Pool 2)
Advancing from Pool D: USA & Mexico (to Pool 2)
Advancing from Pool 1: Cuba & Korea
Advancing from Pool 2: Venezuela & USA
Championship Game: Venezuela vs. Korea
WBC CHAMPION: VENEZUELA
Update: Wow, I could not have done much worse, about the only thing I predicted right is that it would be unpredictable.
In the spirit of the upcoming NCAA March Madness basketball tournament, here's my WBC bracket:
Advancing from Pool A: Japan & Cuba (to Pool 1)
Advancing from Pool B: Korea & Chinese Taipei (to Pool 1)
Advancing from Pool C: D.R. & Venezuela (to Pool 2)
Advancing from Pool D: USA & Mexico (to Pool 2)
Advancing from Pool 1: Cuba & Korea
Advancing from Pool 2: Venezuela & USA
Championship Game: Venezuela vs. Korea
WBC CHAMPION: VENEZUELA
Update: Wow, I could not have done much worse, about the only thing I predicted right is that it would be unpredictable.
Monday, July 23, 2012
Checking in on my Pre-Season Predictions
With 60 games left in the regular season the Dragons have a very good shot at making the playoffs for the 7th straight year. They've been better than I expected, leading the Central League for a majority of the first half. Chunichi has struggled some of late, especially on the road, but still the rotation has been good (2nd in the CL in ERA) and the offense has had more punch than I was expecting. The team has been dealing with a lot of injuries, which was expected with have such a veteran team. Yoshimi, Morino, Asao, Kawakami, Araki, Blanco, Tajima, Soto and Nelson have all missed significant time. Blanco is still out for another month or two and his injury could be a critical factor in the Dragons position in the playoff race. Morimichi Takagi has done a pretty nice job so far as the manager, but we are at the point of the season where he will really have to earn his money, managing the injury situations and fatigue of a long season. Lets take a look at some of the players I labeled as x-factors coming into the season:
X-factors:
The whole rotation, except for Kazuki Yoshimi:
Overall the rotation has been great, due to injuries quite a few guys have gotten starts, the guys below have gotten the majority of them.
Shinji Iwata - He was brought up early in the season has consistently given quality innings. He hasn't won a lot lately due to a lack of run support, but has continued to pitch well. He's been a bit of a surprise and young guy who taken advantage an opportunity. He should be in the rotation to rest of the way, though I'm not sure if he would be called on in the playoffs.
Yudai Kawai - Kawai has been up and down this year. He's been skipped in the rotation a few times and I don't think Takagi knows what he will get from him right now.
Kenshin Kawakami - He's missed most of the season because of injury, but has been good when he's pitched. He's a veteran and was a star, so I'm sure he'll be called on to pitch whenever he is able.
Kenichi Nakata - He pitched very well early in the season, but has struggled lately. His overall numbers are still good and he leads the team in strikeouts.
Takashi Ogasawara - He was brought up near mid-season and made five starts. Things didn't go all that well in most of his starts and he was sent back down to ni-gun.
Masa Yamamoto - He did well to start the season by began to be hit hard as the season progressed. He may get some spot starts down the stretch, but we may not see much of him.
Soma Yamauchi - He's been solid and a border-line all-star. He's pitched to contact, only has 34 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings, but been successful in getting outs.
Going forward the rotation looks to be Yoshimi, Kawakami, Nakata, Soto, Iwata and Yamauchi. That group should do well, if healthy, and be one of the better rotations in the CL.
Masahiko Morino - He's had some clutch hits and had a lot of game-winning RBIs early in the year prior to missing some time with injury. Overall, though, he has struggled and has only 9 extra-base hits. He was even dropped in the batting order for a while. The Dragons need more from him if they are going to overtake the Giants.
Kazahiro Wada - He's been the most consistant hitter on the team. His OBP is .360 and SLG is .411, way better than last year, he already has almost as many hits this year as he had all of last year. He was moved to the 3-hole a couple months ago and has been hitting cleanup lately after Blanco's injury. Hopefully he can keep hitting he's been a big part of Chunichi's success so far this year.
Ryosuke Hirata - He's been a little disappointing. He's hit 8 home runs, the second most on the team, but he hasn't gotten on base enough and has been losing playing time lately.
Naomichi Donoue - He's filled in well defensively, but has been pretty mediocre at the plate. Still a very useful player but not playing well enough to win a starting job on the infield.
Victor Diaz - He has been a non-factor, hasn't played much and hasn't done much in his few opportunities.
The Dragons have definitely hit better this year over last, though the offense has slowed down lately. They are third in the Central in batting average, although they are fifth in runs scored, still that has been good enough and should continue to be good enough going forward considering how good their pitching is. Yohei Ohshima has been a good top of the order hitter and Hirokazu Ibata has been getting on base alot as well. Blanco's injury will hurt, but I think Chunichi will hold their position in the standings, the other the teams behind them all have flaws as well.
Here's what I projected and how things have gone up to now:
2012 Projected Central League Standings:
Yomiuri Giants
Yakult Swallows
Chunichi Dragons
Hiroshima Carp
Hanshin Tigers
DeNA Bay Stars
Current Standings:
(1) Yomiuri
(2) Chunichi
(3) Hiroshima (tied)
(3) Yakult (tied)
(5) Hanshin
(6) DeNA
Not a ton of surprises so far, Yomiuri took a while to get things figured out, but baseball has a long season and they easily overcame a bad first month. Chunichi has been a little better than I expected and Yakult and Hanshin have been worse. Yakult's pitching has been worse than I would have thought and while they have hit well, they haven't hit consistently enough. Hanshin had a really bad two week stretch that hurt them, but they seem to be a team that consistently under-performs their talent level, this season is no exception. Hiroshima has been the biggest surprise to me; they have made up ground lately in the standings despite catastrophic injuries. It would be nice to see them stay in contention, they have some good pitching, but their lineup is weak and they've lost some of their best hitters for the season. DeNA has been out of it since almost Game 1, but any of the other teams could still make the playoffs, should be fun to see how things play out.
X-factors:
The whole rotation, except for Kazuki Yoshimi:
Overall the rotation has been great, due to injuries quite a few guys have gotten starts, the guys below have gotten the majority of them.
Shinji Iwata - He was brought up early in the season has consistently given quality innings. He hasn't won a lot lately due to a lack of run support, but has continued to pitch well. He's been a bit of a surprise and young guy who taken advantage an opportunity. He should be in the rotation to rest of the way, though I'm not sure if he would be called on in the playoffs.
Yudai Kawai - Kawai has been up and down this year. He's been skipped in the rotation a few times and I don't think Takagi knows what he will get from him right now.
Kenshin Kawakami - He's missed most of the season because of injury, but has been good when he's pitched. He's a veteran and was a star, so I'm sure he'll be called on to pitch whenever he is able.
Kenichi Nakata - He pitched very well early in the season, but has struggled lately. His overall numbers are still good and he leads the team in strikeouts.
Takashi Ogasawara - He was brought up near mid-season and made five starts. Things didn't go all that well in most of his starts and he was sent back down to ni-gun.
Masa Yamamoto - He did well to start the season by began to be hit hard as the season progressed. He may get some spot starts down the stretch, but we may not see much of him.
Soma Yamauchi - He's been solid and a border-line all-star. He's pitched to contact, only has 34 strikeouts in 88 2/3 innings, but been successful in getting outs.
Going forward the rotation looks to be Yoshimi, Kawakami, Nakata, Soto, Iwata and Yamauchi. That group should do well, if healthy, and be one of the better rotations in the CL.
Masahiko Morino - He's had some clutch hits and had a lot of game-winning RBIs early in the year prior to missing some time with injury. Overall, though, he has struggled and has only 9 extra-base hits. He was even dropped in the batting order for a while. The Dragons need more from him if they are going to overtake the Giants.
Kazahiro Wada - He's been the most consistant hitter on the team. His OBP is .360 and SLG is .411, way better than last year, he already has almost as many hits this year as he had all of last year. He was moved to the 3-hole a couple months ago and has been hitting cleanup lately after Blanco's injury. Hopefully he can keep hitting he's been a big part of Chunichi's success so far this year.
Ryosuke Hirata - He's been a little disappointing. He's hit 8 home runs, the second most on the team, but he hasn't gotten on base enough and has been losing playing time lately.
Naomichi Donoue - He's filled in well defensively, but has been pretty mediocre at the plate. Still a very useful player but not playing well enough to win a starting job on the infield.
Victor Diaz - He has been a non-factor, hasn't played much and hasn't done much in his few opportunities.
The Dragons have definitely hit better this year over last, though the offense has slowed down lately. They are third in the Central in batting average, although they are fifth in runs scored, still that has been good enough and should continue to be good enough going forward considering how good their pitching is. Yohei Ohshima has been a good top of the order hitter and Hirokazu Ibata has been getting on base alot as well. Blanco's injury will hurt, but I think Chunichi will hold their position in the standings, the other the teams behind them all have flaws as well.
Here's what I projected and how things have gone up to now:
2012 Projected Central League Standings:
Yomiuri Giants
Yakult Swallows
Chunichi Dragons
Hiroshima Carp
Hanshin Tigers
DeNA Bay Stars
Current Standings:
(1) Yomiuri
(2) Chunichi
(3) Hiroshima (tied)
(3) Yakult (tied)
(5) Hanshin
(6) DeNA
Not a ton of surprises so far, Yomiuri took a while to get things figured out, but baseball has a long season and they easily overcame a bad first month. Chunichi has been a little better than I expected and Yakult and Hanshin have been worse. Yakult's pitching has been worse than I would have thought and while they have hit well, they haven't hit consistently enough. Hanshin had a really bad two week stretch that hurt them, but they seem to be a team that consistently under-performs their talent level, this season is no exception. Hiroshima has been the biggest surprise to me; they have made up ground lately in the standings despite catastrophic injuries. It would be nice to see them stay in contention, they have some good pitching, but their lineup is weak and they've lost some of their best hitters for the season. DeNA has been out of it since almost Game 1, but any of the other teams could still make the playoffs, should be fun to see how things play out.
Friday, March 2, 2012
2012 Outlook
Projected Depth Chart (this is my best guess, nothing official):
Underlined = New to the team this year
Starting Rotation:
(1) Kazuki Yoshimi
(2) Maximo Nelson (currently injured)
(3) Enyelbert Soto
(4) Kenshin Kawakami
(5) Yudai Kawai
(6) These guys will probably all get some starts: Masa Yamamoto, Soma Yamauchi, Junki Ito, Daisuke Yamai, Jorge Sosa
Main Relievers:
Hitoki Iwase
Takuya Asao
Masafumi Hirai
Masato Kobayashi
Akinobu Shimizu
Yoshihiro Suzuki
Everyday Players:
(C) Motonobu Tanishige
(1B) Tony Blanco
(2B) Masahiro Araki
(3B) Masahiko Morino
(SS) Hirokazu Ibata
(LF) Kazuhiro Wada
(CF) Yohei Oshima
(RF) Ryosuke Hirata
Other Contributors:
(1B) Takeshi Yamasaki
(2B-3B) Naomichi Donoue
(1B-3B) Ryoji Nakata
(OF) Takehiro Donoue
(OF) Hidenori Kuramoto
(OF) Kei Nomoto
(INF-OF) Victor Diaz
X-factors:
The whole rotation, except for Kazuki Yoshimi
Masahiko Morino
Kazahiro Wada
Ryosuke Hirata
Naomichi Donoue
Victor Diaz
Opening day is approaching and it looks like Chunichi's roster is pretty much set. As usual there hasn't been much turnover on the Dragons roster or throughout the Central League, with Yomiuri and DeNA making the biggest moves. 2012 marks the beginning of the Morimichi Takagi era as manager, and as much as I hated seeing Ochiai go, I've chosen to keep a positive outlook for the upcoming season and won't criticize the new guy until he has at least managed a few games.
If the 2012 squad is going to have success they will have to follow the same formula as last year's team, which means winning a lot of low-scoring games. How the season goes will likely be determined by the teams starting rotation. With Iwase and Asao back, Chunichi has two of the best relievers around to lock-down the late innings. So it will be up to the starters to get games to those guys with the lead. Chunichi could end up having one of the best rotations in the CL again by the end of the season, but with the loss of Wei-Ying Chen to the MLB and Maximo Nelson for potentially a while to injury the Dragons will need other guys to step up. Fortunately they have a legit ace in Kazuki Yoshimi, promising young pitchers Junki Ito and Soma Yamauchi as well as, hopefully, a full year of Enyelbert Soto, who was dominant last year over 78 innings (1.73 ERA, 59 SO, 19 BB). The return of Kenshin Kawakami, if he is healthy, and newcomer Jorge Sosa could give the rotation a boost as well.
2012 will likely start with the same lineup as last year, which was historically bad. There is some hope that veterans will bounce back after a tough 2011 and hopefully some of the younger guys will continue to improve. I expect Masahiko Morino to bounce back a bit from last year; his 2011 batting average dropped by nearly 100 points from the previous year. Likely the new NPB ball attributed to his decline, but I would expect him to be back to at least a .275, 10 HR, 70 RBI year for 2012. I don't know that Kazuhiro Wada will be able to have the same bounce back at his age and he may lose playing time, possibly to newcomer Victor Diaz, as the season progresses. Tony Blanco returns on a one-year contract, and despite whining from management about his production he has been pretty consistent for the Dragons, if he can stay healthy, he should put up at least .260, 25 HR, 80 RBI. Ryosuke Hirata burst onto the scene early last year with some clutch hitting and continued on to what would normally be a pretty mediocre year, but for last year's Dragons was about the best on the team. Hopefully he can build on his success from last year and be even better this year. Naomichi Donoue is another young guy that could be on doorstep of being a major contributor, hopefully he will start hitting and force himself into one of the middle infield positions and take away some innings from one of the currently light-hitting combo of Mashiro Araki and Hirokazu Ibata. So there is some hope for improvement over last year, but the strength of the team will still be pitching by a wide margin.
I'm not expecting another 1st place season this year, not that I or anyone expected them to finish first or go to the Japan Series last year. This years team will probably still have the same flaws as the 2011 team, but since Yomiuri has been the only CL team to actually add any significant talent over the offseason, Chunichi should be in the hunt again for a postseason spot. Really the whole Central League is up for grabs, I could see anyone aside from the Bay Stars taking first. Yomiuri looks like the best on paper, but in sports that doesn't always get you very far (e.g. 2011 Philadelpia Eagles). The four other teams seem to be at around the same talent level and could probably finish in any order. Here is my projected CL standings for 2012:
2012 Projected Central League Standings:
Yomiuri Giants
Yakult Swallows
Chunichi Dragons
Hiroshima Carp
Hanshin Tigers
DeNA Bay Stars
Underlined = New to the team this year
Starting Rotation:
(1) Kazuki Yoshimi
(2) Maximo Nelson (currently injured)
(3) Enyelbert Soto
(4) Kenshin Kawakami
(5) Yudai Kawai
(6) These guys will probably all get some starts: Masa Yamamoto, Soma Yamauchi, Junki Ito, Daisuke Yamai, Jorge Sosa
Main Relievers:
Hitoki Iwase
Takuya Asao
Masafumi Hirai
Masato Kobayashi
Akinobu Shimizu
Yoshihiro Suzuki
Everyday Players:
(C) Motonobu Tanishige
(1B) Tony Blanco
(2B) Masahiro Araki
(3B) Masahiko Morino
(SS) Hirokazu Ibata
(LF) Kazuhiro Wada
(CF) Yohei Oshima
(RF) Ryosuke Hirata
Other Contributors:
(1B) Takeshi Yamasaki
(2B-3B) Naomichi Donoue
(1B-3B) Ryoji Nakata
(OF) Takehiro Donoue
(OF) Hidenori Kuramoto
(OF) Kei Nomoto
(INF-OF) Victor Diaz
X-factors:
The whole rotation, except for Kazuki Yoshimi
Masahiko Morino
Kazahiro Wada
Ryosuke Hirata
Naomichi Donoue
Victor Diaz
Opening day is approaching and it looks like Chunichi's roster is pretty much set. As usual there hasn't been much turnover on the Dragons roster or throughout the Central League, with Yomiuri and DeNA making the biggest moves. 2012 marks the beginning of the Morimichi Takagi era as manager, and as much as I hated seeing Ochiai go, I've chosen to keep a positive outlook for the upcoming season and won't criticize the new guy until he has at least managed a few games.
If the 2012 squad is going to have success they will have to follow the same formula as last year's team, which means winning a lot of low-scoring games. How the season goes will likely be determined by the teams starting rotation. With Iwase and Asao back, Chunichi has two of the best relievers around to lock-down the late innings. So it will be up to the starters to get games to those guys with the lead. Chunichi could end up having one of the best rotations in the CL again by the end of the season, but with the loss of Wei-Ying Chen to the MLB and Maximo Nelson for potentially a while to injury the Dragons will need other guys to step up. Fortunately they have a legit ace in Kazuki Yoshimi, promising young pitchers Junki Ito and Soma Yamauchi as well as, hopefully, a full year of Enyelbert Soto, who was dominant last year over 78 innings (1.73 ERA, 59 SO, 19 BB). The return of Kenshin Kawakami, if he is healthy, and newcomer Jorge Sosa could give the rotation a boost as well.
2012 will likely start with the same lineup as last year, which was historically bad. There is some hope that veterans will bounce back after a tough 2011 and hopefully some of the younger guys will continue to improve. I expect Masahiko Morino to bounce back a bit from last year; his 2011 batting average dropped by nearly 100 points from the previous year. Likely the new NPB ball attributed to his decline, but I would expect him to be back to at least a .275, 10 HR, 70 RBI year for 2012. I don't know that Kazuhiro Wada will be able to have the same bounce back at his age and he may lose playing time, possibly to newcomer Victor Diaz, as the season progresses. Tony Blanco returns on a one-year contract, and despite whining from management about his production he has been pretty consistent for the Dragons, if he can stay healthy, he should put up at least .260, 25 HR, 80 RBI. Ryosuke Hirata burst onto the scene early last year with some clutch hitting and continued on to what would normally be a pretty mediocre year, but for last year's Dragons was about the best on the team. Hopefully he can build on his success from last year and be even better this year. Naomichi Donoue is another young guy that could be on doorstep of being a major contributor, hopefully he will start hitting and force himself into one of the middle infield positions and take away some innings from one of the currently light-hitting combo of Mashiro Araki and Hirokazu Ibata. So there is some hope for improvement over last year, but the strength of the team will still be pitching by a wide margin.
I'm not expecting another 1st place season this year, not that I or anyone expected them to finish first or go to the Japan Series last year. This years team will probably still have the same flaws as the 2011 team, but since Yomiuri has been the only CL team to actually add any significant talent over the offseason, Chunichi should be in the hunt again for a postseason spot. Really the whole Central League is up for grabs, I could see anyone aside from the Bay Stars taking first. Yomiuri looks like the best on paper, but in sports that doesn't always get you very far (e.g. 2011 Philadelpia Eagles). The four other teams seem to be at around the same talent level and could probably finish in any order. Here is my projected CL standings for 2012:
2012 Projected Central League Standings:
Yomiuri Giants
Yakult Swallows
Chunichi Dragons
Hiroshima Carp
Hanshin Tigers
DeNA Bay Stars
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